Raj Thackeray stands to gain from grand alliance

Published in DNA on Saturday, Jan 7, 2012

By Surendra Gangan

How many seats will Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) win this civic election? This question is on everyone’s mind. 

Ramdas Athawale tie-up with the saffron alliance is expected to prove a boon for the MNS in the city.

According to analysts, the seats allocated to the Athawale group by the Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party combine might benefit Raj Thackeray’s party. Reason: Traditional Shiv Sena voters never bonded with or had an inclination for leaders from the dalit factions. Sena’s resistance to the naming of the Marathwada University after Dr BA Ambedkar was the talking point among leaders of the various RPI factions when Athawale joined the saffron alliance four months ago.

In this backdrop, it is likely that Sena loyalists may choose MNS over RPI candidates.

Political analyst S M Gothoskar pointed out: “Sena loyalists preferred MNS over the BJP candidate in the Kalyan-Dombivli municipal corporation elections in 2010. If these voters can defy candidates from the party that has been in alliance with the Sena for more than two decades, RPI is just a few months old in the combine. This would help either the MNS or Congress-NCP if the latter do form alliance.”

Athawale’s joining hands with the Sena has not gone down well with many dalits.

First, Shiv Sena refused to clearly support the demand for the entire 12 acres of Indu Mills land for Ambedkar memorial. Secondly, the council election results have, in no way, proved that Sena benefitted after joining hands with Athawale.

MNS legislator Nitin Sardesai is confident that his party does not require the support of “any negative kind of voting”. “MNS has built its own voter base in the city in the last five years,” he said. 

If one looks at the performance of the MNS in the 2007 civic polls and 2009 assembly elections, MNS has indeed strengthened its base in Mumbai — from bagging seven seats in the civic polls and six seats in the assembly elections.

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Villages voted in right earnest

Surendra Gangan

Democracy matters more in rural Maharashtra. If Mumbai, its suburbs and Thane are excluded, the voting percentage in the rest of the state works out to a healthy 64.40. In fact, the gap between rural and urban turnout in these assembly polls is over 15%.
While the average turnout in the Mumbai city is 45.19%, only 49.94% Thane voters cast their votes. Pune and Nagpur fare a tad better with 54.81% and 56.43% respectively.
The reluctance of the urban voter to participate in the democratic process is being chiefly attributed to their apathy towards politics, a large presence of migrants who do not have franchise or interest, and the errors in the electoral rolls.
An official in the election branch admitted that the electoral rolls have not been revised after 1995. “Though numerous enrollment drives have been undertaken, correction in the rolls has always been overlooked. A lot of names of dead people still exist on the lists as neither the heirs have taken pains to delete them, nor does the machinery have the capacity to check their presence. Also, a large number of urban voters keep changing addresses, and are registered in two or more constituencies. This brings the percentage down,” he said.
Senior journalist Pratap Asbe said that these factors affect the overall turnout by nearly 5%. SM Gothoskar, an expert in political statistics, said: “The well-off families are indifferent to politics and do not come in direct contact with the representatives who can convince them to vote. The rapport between the political workers and the voters is better in the rural areas.”
Some Muslims areas in the state have registered a low turnout—including Bhiwandi, Miraj, Nagpur and Mira- Bhayander. Community leaders say this is due to inadequate representation of the community, failure of the government on minority issues and lack of options.

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